A recent poll indicates that former Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s political faction would secure 51 seats in the 120-member Knesset if elections were conducted today. However, the survey results suggest that neither Netanyahu’s bloc nor the main Zionist opposition, projected to win 55 seats, would achieve the 61-seat majority required to form a government.
The poll, released on Thursday, highlights the potential significance of two Arab-majority parties, which are expected to win a combined 14 seats. Their support could be crucial in any coalition-building efforts following the election, scheduled for October 27.
Former IDF Chief Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party is poised to become the largest single party with 24 seats, according to the poll. Meanwhile, Naftali Bennett’s B’Yachad is projected to gain 14 seats, Yisrael Beytenu nine, and the Democrats eight.
Within Netanyahu’s alliance, Likud is forecasted to win 22 seats, with Shas taking 10, United Torah Judaism nine, Otzma Yehudit seven, and Religious Zionism four seats. Some parties, such as Ofer Winter’s People of Israel, HaMiluimnikim, and Blue and White, failed to meet the 3.25% electoral threshold necessary to enter the Knesset.
The survey also revealed public sentiment regarding potential outcomes if the election results in a stalemate. Approximately 31.4% of respondents favor holding another election, while 29.6% prefer a unity government, and 27% support a minority administration. Among Netanyahu supporters, 45.02% lean towards a unity government, whereas 39.79% of his opponents back a minority government.
The poll, which surveyed 500 respondents, has a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points, underscoring the ongoing uncertainty about the formation of Israel’s next government.