Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces a challenging political landscape after election results left his bloc without a parliamentary majority. With Netanyahu’s bloc securing 53 seats and the main opposition alliance obtaining 48 in the 120-member Knesset, both sides now require support from other political groups to form a government, as 61 seats are needed for a majority.
The Arab-led parties, which achieved a significant milestone by winning 19 seats, have emerged as potential kingmakers in this scenario. This development marks their strongest performance to date and underscores the increasing political influence of Arab citizens, who make up about 20% of Israel’s population. Strong voter turnout and opposition to Netanyahu’s far-right allies have bolstered their position, though Netanyahu has criticized the prospect of an opposition government relying on Arab parties, citing national security concerns.
One possible outcome could see opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot forming a coalition with Arab-led parties, potentially securing up to 67 seats. However, this coalition could face resistance from right-wing politicians and voters. An alternative scenario involves a national unity government including Netanyahu and opposition politicians, but Eisenkot and his allies have consistently rejected serving under Netanyahu, criticizing his leadership for security failures, particularly after the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack, and raising concerns about democratic institutions amid Netanyahu’s ongoing corruption trial.
Adding to the political tension are allegations of possible foreign interference in the elections. The Israeli election authorities have requested an investigation by the Shin Bet security agency following claims of irregularities, with Qatar denying any involvement. Election officials have emphasized that these unverified allegations should not undermine the legitimacy of Arab voters or the election outcome.
If coalition negotiations fail, Israel may face another election early next year, with Netanyahu’s government continuing in a caretaker role. The current political deadlock mirrors previous periods of electoral instability in the country. The final election results are set to be submitted to President Isaac Herzog, who will task a candidate with forming the next government. The new Knesset is scheduled to be sworn in on November 10, leaving the future of Israel’s leadership uncertain as parties navigate the complex coalition-building process.